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Four Things to Watch in Tuesday’s New York Primary Elections

Here are four things to watch on Tuesday:

PAPER BALLOTS: When Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were trying to secure their parties’ presidential nominations in April 2016, New York election administrators processed 115,178 applications for absentee ballots.

Applications related to Tuesday’s primaries had to be postmarked by June 16. According to the state Board of Elections, at least 1,949,997 ballots had been distributed as of June 19. The high volume of absentee ballots—which aren’t counted by machines at polling places, as in-person ballots are—will make it impossible to determine the results of many contests for more than a week.

But political scientists and campaign officials say it is unclear how that will affect turnout, or which campaigns will find an advantage in voting by mail. Neal Kwatra, a Democrat and founder of the Metropolitan Public Strategies public-affairs firm, said that in other states where mail voting is more common, institutions such as parties and unions have proven more adept at securing absentee-ballot support than upstart campaigns. He wasn’t sure that would be the case on Tuesday.

“We’re in a different moment right now: Campaigns with good data and the resources to contact voters will be in as good a place as those with institutions,” Mr. Kwatra said.

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